Default swaps on Big Tech quadrupled, and five canaries in the coal mine | Market Hang
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Weekly trading in credit default swaps on Big Tech debt went from under $2 billion in July to more than $9 billion in September, because protection is now cheaper than buying puts. Jen Saarbach opens on that, then the producer puts the same question to everyone: what is your canary in the coal mine? Amy Wu Silverman of RBC says the market has simply been lucky on correlation. Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh watches the Strait of Hormuz and memory chips. Drew Pettit of Roundhill says the warning sign is the day investors decide stocks look cheap. Plus utilities as a backdoor AI trade, and Netflix before the print. Featuring Jen Saarbach, Co-host, Market Hang, and Co-founder, The Wall Street Skinny Kristen Kelly, Co-host, Market Hang, and Co-founder, The Wall Street Skinny Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy, RBC Capital Markets Kevin Mahn, Chief Investment Officer, Hennion & Walsh Drew Pettit, Chief Investment Strategist, Roundhill Investments Timestamps 0:00 Welcome back to Market Hang 0:31 Risk assets get their mojo back 1:25 A Korean IPO prices near the top, then falls 1:51 Default swap trading on Big Tech quadrupled 2:13 Why protection got cheaper than puts 2:38 So what is your canary in the coal mine? 2:56 Waiting to see what Anthropic actually earns 4:33 A highly dispersed market, and why that is luck 5:19 Selling volatility until the music stops 5:39 Two canaries: The Strait of Hormuz, and memory 6:30 Why Micron decides what happens to Nvidia 6:58 The canary is the day trading goes macro again 8:04 Hedge funds do not trade baskets of 100 stocks anymore 9:21 When everyone says the market is cheap, worry 10:05 Finding a differentiated type of risk 10:47 What breaks the rotation that has been saving us? 11:16 The ten year at five and a half, and what six would do 12:04 A dollar spike in either direction 12:32 Is CoreWeave now in the Fed's calculus? 13:09 If the inflation is oil, what does a quarter point fix? 13:55 The dot plot everyone assumed had gon
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